COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS: LOOK FOR LOTS OF BLOWOUTS, AS USUAL, AS SEASON BEGINS IN EARNEST
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
For all the changes happening in college football nowadays, one thing remains the same: Week 1 blowouts.
There should be a bunch of them when the season hits full stride with Labor Day weekend games scheduled Thursday through Monday.
The average predicted point spread is 26 points for the 18 games involving Top 25 teams and fellow Bowl Subdivision members. Seven teams are favored to win by at least four touchdowns and only two by fewer than 10 points.
There are 48 games matching Championship Subdivision teams against the FBS, with six involving Top 25 teams.
The picks for the FBS vs. FBS games, with Associated Press Top 25 rankings and betting lines, with all games Saturday unless noted:
BALL STATE (PLUS 50 1/2) AT NO. 1 OHIO STATE
Ohio State is flip-flopping tradition and holding its senior day ceremony before the opener. Former star RB Maurice Clarett will be the pregame victory bell ringer and then the Buckeyes will do what they’re supposed to do against a team like Ball State. Starters will have a short day with a showdown at No. 5 Texas on deck.
Pick: Ohio State 56-7.
BOISE STATE (PLUS 24 1/2) AT NO. 2 OREGON
Oregon needed a last-second field goal to win the last time these teams met, and there are always kinks to work out in an opener even for a star-studded cast. The Broncos have a three-year starter in QB Maddux Madsen and a run game that can control the ball, though that’s a big ask against maybe the best defensive front in the nation.
Pick: Oregon 42-21.
WISCONSIN VS. NO. 4 NOTRE DAME (MINUS 20 1/2) IN GREEN BAY
Notre Dame is a team on a mission after getting left out of the College Football Playoff, and Heisman Trophy co-favorite CJ Carr should flourish on the big stage Sunday night against a defense that has a work-in-progress pass rush and a rebuilding secondary.
Pick: Notre Dame 33-10.
TEXAS STATE AT NO. 5 TEXAS (MINUS 29 1/2)
Arch Manning should feast on a defense that struggled against the best offenses in the Sun Belt last year. The Bobcats’ up-tempo offense featuring record-setting QB Brad Jackson and a pair of 1,000-yard receivers should give returning Longhorns defensive coordinator Will Muschamp some things to think about.
Pick: Texas 52-21.
NORTH TEXAS AT NO. 6 INDIANA (MINUS 40 1/2)
The Hoosiers’ national title defense, and first game for Fernando Mendoza successor Josh Hoover, comes against a rebuilding Mean Green program that was in contention for a playoff spot last year. North Texas has no returning starters on defense; its QB, Tayven Jackson, played two years at Indiana.
Pick: Indiana 63-10.
NO. 7 MIAMI (MINUS 24) AT STANFORD
The Hurricanes are doing all they can to avoid the pitfalls of playing 3,000 miles from home, flying to California on Tuesday to help them acclimate for Friday night’s game. Stage is set for WR Malachi Toney to take over, especially with new QB Darian Mensah delivering the ball. Stanford is confident after holding off Hawaii, but the ‘Canes are a different problem to solve.
Pick: Miami 42-17.
MISSOURI STATE AT NO. 8 TEXAS A&M (MINUS 41)
QB Marcel Reed and other returning players are expected to take the Aggies back to the playoff. Bears have a new coach in ex-SMU offensive coordinator Casey Woods and are picked seventh in Conference USA in their second FBS season.
Pick: Texas A&M 55-6.
NO. 24 LOUISVILLE VS. NO. 9 MISSISSIPPI (MINUS 7) IN NASHVILLE
QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy are back after leading Mississippi on a run to the CFP semifinals. Ohio State transfer QB Lincoln Kienholz will start Sunday night for Cardinals, who have upset two top-10 teams and an 11th-ranked team in Jeff Brohm’s first three seasons.
Pick: Mississippi 31-21.
UTEP AT NO. 10 OKLAHOMA (MINUS 41 1/2)
Sooners QB John Mateer and the rest of the starters should have a short night Friday in the tune-up for next week’s trip to No. 16 Michigan. Miners are 5-19 in two seasons under Scotty Walden and have scored more than 10 points in only two of 12 games against power-conference opponents the last 10 years.
Pick: Oklahoma 49-3.
CLEMSON AT NO. 11 LSU (MINUS 10)
Lots of talk about eligibility issues leading up to this one from Dabo Swinney and Lane Kiffin. As for the football part, Kiffin’s well-paid roster holds the talent advantage. Clemson QB Christopher Vizzina has unenviable task of making his second career start in LSU’s version of Death Valley.
Pick: LSU 28-17.
EAST CAROLINA (PLUS 28 1/2) AT NO. 13 ALABAMA
Alabama’s priority on offense is to revive a woeful running game. Keelon Russell, the Tide’s No. 3 QB last year, is now the starter and the offensive line has four new starters. The difference-maker could be five-star freshman RB EJ Crowell.
Pick: Alabama 38-14.
FRESNO STATE (PLUS 21 1/2) AT NO. 14 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
The Trojans took their foot off the gas in the second half against San Jose State. That won’t happen Friday night against Fresno State, which has designs on earning the Group of Six playoff bid.
Pick: USC 35-14.
WESTERN MICHIGAN (PLUS 27 1/2) AT NO. 16 MICHIGAN
The Wolverines better not look ahead to Oklahoma in coach Kyle Whittingham’s debut. Western Michigan is the defending MAC champion and favored to repeat. Wolverines have a wide physical advantage, but makeup of the offensive line is unsettled and QB Bryce Underwood hasn’t run Jason Beck’s offense in a game.
Pick: Michigan 44-21.
WASHINGTON STATE AT NO. 17 WASHINGTON (MINUS 23 1/2)
Washington is a team on the rise in the Big Ten, especially with the return of QB Demond Williams. Kirby Moore, little brother of New York Giants coach Kellen Moore, starts his Washington State tenure with this unusual Apple Cup coming on the Sunday before Labor Day.
Pick: Washington 49-10.
MARSHALL AT NO. 18 PENN STATE (MINUS 24 1/2)
The Matt Campbell era begins at Penn State, and he’s brought a lot of familiar faces with him from Iowa State. QB Rocco Becht and his friends should feel comfortable as they ease their way into the season with three straight easy games.
Pick: Penn State 45-7.
NO. 19 SMU AT FLORIDA STATE (PLUS 2 1/2)
The old saw is that a team makes its biggest improvement between the first and second games, and that better be the case for the Seminoles. The defense gave up too many big plays against New Mexico State and must be better with SMU QB Kevin Jennings coming to town on Monday night.
Pick: Florida State 28-24.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (PLUS 31 1/2) AT NO. 22 IOWA
A point spread this big is highly unusual for Iowa. That’s more an indicator of the expectations for Northern Illinois, which has an interim coach and is coming off a three-win season. Neither team has announced its starting quarterback.
Pick: Iowa 40-10.
OREGON STATE AT NO. 23 HOUSTON (MINUS 20 1/2)
Makhi Hughes, who rushed for more than 2,700 yards over two seasons at Tulane, is set to reboot his career after things didn’t work out for him at Oregon last year. He and returning QB Conner Weigman should put up big numbers against an Oregon State team with its fifth coach (two were interims) in four years.
Pick: Houston 42-7.
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 1: KIFFIN MAKES LSU DEBUT, NO. 24 LOUISVILLE-NO. 9 OLE MISS ONLY TOP 25 GAME
After its soft launch last week, college football holds its grand opening on Labor Day weekend.
It’s certainly not as grand as last year, when there were three Top 25 matchups, but fans hungry for football will find motivation to tune in as the race for the College Football Playoff begins.
The only game pitting two Associated Press Top 25 teams is Sunday when No. 24 Louisville meets No. 9 Mississippi in Nashville.
There are a handful of games Thursday before things rev up Friday with No. 7 Miami’s visit to Stanford, which already has a win under its belt after holding off Hawaii last week.
No. 2 Oregon opens at home against Boise State on Saturday, and don’t let the point spread keep you from watching. The Ducks are 24.5-point favorites, but the Broncos have been pointing to this game for a long time and they bring back big playmakers. Oregon won 37-34 on a last-second field goal in Eugene the last time these teams met, in 2024.
The game of the week, of course, is Clemson at No. 11 LSU on Saturday night. Drama seems to follow Lane Kiffin wherever he goes, and there’s been no lack of it in Baton Rouge since he arrived, with most of it in the courtroom lately.
The Apple Cup meeting between Washington State and No. 17 Washington in Seattle kicks things off Sunday. Fans will have a decision to make in the evening or keep the remote handy: No. 4 Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in Green Bay or Louisville-Mississippi. The holiday weekend wraps up with No. 19 SMU at Florida State on Monday night.
Best game is an ACC vs. SEC clash
Clemson at No. 11 LSU, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
All the talk about players returning from the NFL to suit up for LSU has overshadowed the actual matchup, which features two teams trying to recapture their former glory.
This was a top-10 matchup a year ago, with LSU coming from behind to win 17-10 on the road. Both teams went on to finish 7-6, with LSU firing Brian Kelly after eight games and Clemson recording its fewest wins since 2010.
Kiffin will unveil what’s reportedly the highest-paid roster in the land featuring quarterback Sam Leavitt (Arizona State), offensive lineman Jordan Seaton (Colorado), edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen (Mississippi) and safety Ty Benefield (Boise State).
Chad Morris is back as Clemson’s offensive coordinator, and talented wide receiver Bryant Wesco Jr. has returned from a serious, season-ending neck and back injury. Linebacker Sammy Brown anchors a defense that struggled and prompted Dabo Swinney to uncharacteristically lean on the transfer portal to shore things up.
Heisman Trophy watch
Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Texas star Arch Manning enter the season as front-runners for the Heisman Trophy, and Carr figures to get the tougher opening test against Wisconsin.
Carr led the Fighting Irish to 10 straight wins to end last season and finished with 24 touchdown passes, most by a Notre Dame quarterback through 12 starts since 1966. He needs to capitalize on the big stage of Lambeau Field to get his campaign started right because the Irish aren’t expected to be seriously tested until mid-October.
Manning and the Longhorns face Texas State, a significantly softer opening opponent than a year ago when he went on the road to Ohio State and took a licking. Manning has more offensive pieces around him now, and that starts with AP preseason All-America receiver Cam Coleman.
Numbers to know
1 — Toledo’s returning starters entering Mike Jacobs’ head coaching debut against Michigan State.
26 — No. 1 Ohio State’s consecutive wins in openers heading into Saturday’s game against Ball State, the longest active streak in the country. The Buckeyes are 8-0 in openers under Ryan Day with an average margin of victory of 25.4 points.
91 — Oklahoma State newcomers brought in by first-year coach Eric Morris.
118 — Apple Cup meetings between Washington and Washington State, none as a season opener until this season.
1984 — Last time Virginia Tech played VMI, the Hokies’ opening opponent in the James Franklin era. The schools are 83 miles apart.
Under the radar
South Dakota State at Northwestern, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (BTN)
The Jackrabbits are the Missouri Valley Football Conference preseason favorites, ranked No. 2 in the Championship Subdivision and coming off a 70-7 win over Stetson. They’re 2-11 all-time against the Bowl Subdivision and enter as 12.5-point underdogs.
Northwestern coach David Braun believes he has upgraded the offense with new coordinator Chip Kelly and quarterback Aidan Chiles, but a thin defensive front will be tested by the Jackrabbits’ excellent ground game.
Hot seat
Florida State’s Mike Norvell enters Monday’s game against No. 19 SMU just 8-18 since a 13-0 Seminoles team was left out of the four-team College Football Playoff in 2023. Just when it looked like Norvell would get off the hot seat with a 3-0 start last year that included a 31-17 win over a top-10 Alabama, FSU lost seven of its last nine.
The Seminoles were so-so against overmatched New Mexico State last week, leading by just 10 points in the middle of the fourth quarter before winning 34-17. They will need to be sharper against SMU, widely considered the best team behind Miami in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
And that’s just the start of a rugged September and October schedule for the Seminoles and Norvell, who is under contract through 2031 and would be owed $53.3 million if he’s fired after the season.
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