WHO’S IN? WHO WINS? AP’S WAY TOO EARLY PREDICTION FOR THE 2026 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
The playoff that everyone wanted — make that, demanded — is now a fixture in college football.
The latest set of tweaks were made to favor Notre Dame and maybe some mid-level champion of a big-name conference (think, Duke and the ACC last year), while the losers in that calculation are the little guys who see their chances of cracking into the bracket, let alone winning a game or two, grow that much slimmer.
Even with the adjustments, as the College Football Playoff heads toward its third season of the 12-team playoff, one thing feels the same: Among all the major sports in America (and maybe the world), it still has the market cornered on the most opaque, least consensus-building way of determining who gets to play for the title.
It is still a system in which one team’s 10-2 record means something completely different than another team’s 10-2 record (see 2025 versions of Oklahoma and Vanderbilt); in which one team’s loss to another can have a drastically different meaning at the time it happens vs. four months later (see the Miami-Notre Dame fiasco from last year); and in which a weekly rankings show purports to shine a light on where things might fall, but in the end can sow more confusion (see every show last season airing the CFP rankings).
All that said, 12 teams will make it into the playoff field, which kicks off with four campus games starting Dec. 18. Two will get to Las Vegas to play for the title next Jan. 25. And one will win it all and join Indiana and Ohio State as the third champion of the 12-team-playoff era.
Here’s a best guess on how things shake out (numbers indicate predicted seed):
No. 1: Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish, runners-up in 2024, bring back most of the team that got left on the bubble and out of the tournament last year despite being ranked 11th. The CFP executives fixed that — if Notre Dame is in the top 12, it must get a playoff spot. But with shutdown CB Leonard Moore and QB C.J. Carr returning, no need to worry about squeaking in.
No. 2: Ohio State
Yes, the Buckeyes lost 11 players to the NFL, though that should serve as a reminder of the kind of talent this program brings in. If the season goes perfectly, QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith could both be in New York in December as finalists for the Heisman Trophy.
No. 3: Miami
Last year’s runner-up has the schedule and the players to dampen the impact from a potential Nov. 7 loss to Notre Dame. Darian Mensah threw for almost 4,000 yards at Duke last year, then left the ACC champs (with five losses) for greener pastures and presumably more bucks.
No. 4: Texas
It feels like the last bye week available in the CFP for a top four seed will come down to an SEC title game between the Longhorns and Georgia, two teams that haven’t quite lived up to the hype the last few years. All the buzz at Texas, of course, revolves around Arch Manning, who got lots of help this year to try to make up for last year when the ‘Horns missed the playoff.
5-8: Oregon, Indiana, Texas Tech, Georgia
The Ducks, with Dante Moore, start at No. 2 in the preseason AP poll this year and could stay there heading into the Nov. 7 game at Ohio State. … Hard to bet against Curt Cignetti at Indiana, even without Fernando Mendoza. … Is Will Hammond ready? He better be after the Brandon Sorsby gambling debacle that could undermine an otherwise solid Texas Tech roster. … Georgia is Georgia. It’s what people used to say about Alabama, Florida and every great program in the SEC, which is on a three-year natinoal championship drought.
9-12: LSU, Oklahoma, Virginia, South Florida
LSU’s Lane Kiffin is a lot of things. Good coach is near the top of that list … Defense travels and QB John Mateer is a stud who can run. OU’s schedule (at Michigan, at Georgia, vs. Texas) is tough, though that can set you up for success if you win one or two. … Reprising the Virginia pick from last year because this is, essentially, the same experienced team that almost won the ACC last year with a similarly weak schedule. … ESPN said of the 76 all-conference players on last year’s Group of Five rosters (now G6, with the Pac-12) who had eligibility left, only 23 returned to their school. The American might be a feeder league, but USF might be best in class.
Snubs and tears
After South Florida leapfrogs five or six teams to make the field of 12, bubble teams such as Alabama, Ole Miss, BYU and maybe USC cry foul, ask for reforms and maybe even threaten a lawsuit. … After more snubs and Georgia’s fall out of a first-round bye position after losing the conference title game, the SEC might finally go along with a CFP expansion to 24.
Early upsets in the CFP?
How about this prediction: Oklahoma goes on the road to knock out Texas Tech AND Ohio State. … South Florida can’t contend vs. Georgia, furthering the call to push the G6 completely out unless they earn a CFP berth via ranking. … Notre Dame falls to Texas in the semifinals at the Sugar Bowl and Oregon earns its spot in the final with a road win over the ‘Canes in the other semifinal at the Orange Bowl.
And the winner is …
Oregon beats Texas 24-20 in Vegas to make it four straight for the Big Ten and land the Ducks that elusive championship. QB Dante Moore gets the national title trophy after barely losing a different one — the Heisman — to Manning.
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BIG TEN PLANS TO ADDRESS ELIGIBILITY AFTER TE WAIVED BY NFL TEAM INTENDS TO JOIN LSU, AP SOURCE SAYS
Big Ten administrators were scheduled to meet Tuesday to discuss player eligibility a day after the agent for a player waived by the Cleveland Browns announced his client planned to go to LSU to use his fifth season of eligibility, The Associated Press has learned.
A person familiar with the situation said it was likely a vote would be taken on whether to bar such players from returning to play in the conference, though it was unclear whether athletic directors or school presidents would be voting. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the Big Ten had not formally announced its plans for addressing the matter.
Former Mississippi tight end Dae’Quan Wright could be heading to LSU thanks to a state-level court order that is creating havoc throughout college sports by allowing Wright and others an unexpected fifth year of eligibility despite a NCAA rule change in June impacting players who graduated from high school in 2022.
Wright’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, told the AP on Monday that the tight end had been waived by the Cleveland Browns and, if he clears waivers, will join Lane Kiffin’s roster at No. 11 LSU. Wright played two seasons for Kiffin at Ole Miss.
Wright was among a group of players who sued in a Louisiana court, saying the new NCAA rule granting five years of eligibility to most athletes should apply to him and others who were not “grandfathered” into the rule, which did not include the high school Class of 2022.
The Southeastern Conference said it firmly opposes professional athletes returning to play college sports.
“College athletes, not professional athletes, have been at the heart of the Southeastern Conference,” according to the SEC statement late Monday. “Individuals who choose to leave college athletics, sign professional playing contracts, and compete professionally should not then be permitted to return to college competition. Allowing that to occur will blur the line between college and professional sports, create significant competitive equity concerns and reduce opportunities for high school and current college athletes.”
The SEC concluded its statement by calling on Congress to pass a bill regulating college sports.
Earlier this summer, a Texas judge cleared the way for quarterback Brendan Sorsby to play at Texas Tech despite admitting to gambling in what usually means an NCAA ban. Other members of the Big 12 Conference and the Big 12 itself indicated strong opposition to the planned move and Sorsby eventually decided against trying to play again in college.
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SEC JOINS BIG TEN IN BANNING PROS FROM RETURNING TO COLLEGE, INCLUDING BASKETBALL PLAYERS
The Southeastern Conference passed a rule Tuesday banning players who have been drafted by NFL, NBA or WNBA teams or listed on rosters in those leagues, joining the Big Ten in taking a strong stand against an unexpected surge of pro players trying to return to college with the NCAA mired in a sprawling legal fight over eligibility.
The SEC’s rule goes beyond the one adopted earlier in the day by the Big Ten, which only included football in its decision and is expected address other sports later.
The news was the latest in a head-spinning week of court rulings, emergency rulemaking sessions and player signings, all of which point to a college sports landscape in disarray. The moves by the nation’s two biggest conferences, four days before the start of football season, are intended to tamp down the latest crisis — one involving players who came back to college after being released from pro rosters.
“I feel like I took a freaking gummy,” said Sean McVay, the coach of the Los Angeles Rams, when asked about the prospect of a player he released returning to college. “I don’t even understand it.”
The rules — which seem likely to be challenged in court — came after a series of losses for the NCAA in state courts around the country, where judges are granting players who graduated high school in 2022 a fifth year of eligibility. In June, the NCAA passed a rule giving most players five years to finish five seasons of eligibility in college, but did not grandfather in the Class of ’22.
Hundreds of those players saw their fourth — and supposedly final — year of eligibility run out last spring. They are arguing that they’re being denied educational opportunities and the chance to earn name, image and likeness money that they could get in a fifth year.
College rosters are largely set and incoming freshmen and other new players on teams are now faced with sudden competition from athletes whose eligibility had supposedly run out.
LSU was quick to nab players after court rulings
The SEC rule puts LSU on notice. This week, Tigers coach Lane Kiffin was adding Dae’Quan Wright and Zxavian Harris, a pair of undrafted players out of Mississippi who had tryouts in the NFL over the summer, but were released by their teams during training camp.
The rule, which also applies to players signed by the NBA G League, will impact players like R.J. Luis Jr.. On Monday, the former St. John’s star won a court ruling that allowed him to sign with Will Wade’s basketball program at LSU despite having briefly been under contract with the Jazz and Celtics of the NBA.
Kiffin suggested in a news conference Monday that if LSU didn’t take these newly eligible players, other teams certainly would. Now, nobody can — at least not among the 34 teams that make up the two biggest leagues in college and play an outsize role in spearheading policy across the industry.
There was no immediate comment from LSU.
“Over 100 athletes in multiple sports were cleared and said you could go play. That’s a court order,” Kiffin said earlier Tuesday on “The Pat McAfee Show” on ESPN. “If you think back on all the different court orders of great players that were granted — whether that’s Diego Pavia or, now, Trinidad (Chambliss) that were allowed to play a sixth year, we followed all court orders. I think you get into a really interesting situation as a conference if you’re now saying, ‘Well, we’re not going to follow this court order.’”
The Big Ten’s penalties for violating its rule include a half-season suspension for the head coach and a fine for the school. The SEC did not immediately divulge its penalties, though commissioner Greg Sankey is expected to have wide latitude in figuring out punishment.
The other Power Four leagues, the Atlantic Coast and Big 12 conferences, are expected to discuss the issue Wednesday.
“I don’t think anybody in our league likes the idea of taking away opportunities from existing college students and graduating high school players, which is exactly what is happening when a school signs a player out of an NFL camp to their team,” Wake Forest athletic director John Currie wrote in a text message to The Associated Press.
The leagues and NCAA are using the eligibility crisis as a selling point for the Protect College Sports Act, a bill in the Senate that would give the NCAA some protection against the sort of lawsuits that are upending college athletics.
But that bill is weeks away from a vote. Football season starts Saturday, with the featured game taking place in Ireland, where TCU faces North Carolina.
“It’s a rudderless ship right now,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes said. “I mean, I don’t know who’s in charge of football anymore.”
Duke coach Manny Diaz said the Power Four conferences need to present a unified front.
“You wouldn’t run any other type of corporation, organization, anything else, the way we’re being run right now,” he said. “And so I hope the leagues do step up because somebody has to right now, because when there’s a vacuum, this is what you see.”
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NO. 14 USC OPENS SEASON WITH GREAT EXPECTATIONS
Lincoln Riley begins Year 5 at USC on Saturday when he leads the No. 14 Trojans against San Jose State, the only matchup involving a Top 25 team on a light slate for college football’s opening weekend.
Riley, 35-18 in four seasons in Los Angeles, knows the bar is set high in 2026 based on the talent and experience on his roster. He has not yet led USC to the College Football Playoff, which has been dominated of late by the Big Ten.
“I do believe we’re more equipped than at any point in the previous few years,” Riley said. “That’s not a hope or a wish. Those are facts, and there’s a lot of facts to back that up.”
Experience is a good place to start. USC has 12 starters returning from a 9-4 team in 2025, headlined by quarterback Jayden Maiava and an offensive line Riley believes has more than five legitimate starters. There are also a few rows of blue-chip freshmen on the depth chart the Trojans are ready to introduce at the Coliseum on Saturday.
Maiava had 30 total touchdowns and passed for 3,711 yards in 13 games last season. Freshman wide receiver Boobie Feaster is just 17 years old but significant snaps aren’t out of the question early in the season because of his consistency in camp.
But there’s as much anticipation and excitement around the Trojans’ defense, now led by former TCU coach Gary Patterson. Patterson’s attacking front can be challenging to block, and he has horses to make it click. His Horned Frogs defenses ranked No. 1 in the nation five times in his two decades in Fort Worth.
Junior linebacker Desman Stephens II came out of fall camp with the most buzz from teammates and Riley said nothing to contradict those views Tuesday.
“I think Desman Stephens has made one of the biggest jumps as a player,” Riley said. “He has been really, really good. Just really throughout this entire time. I think he’s really taken to coach Patterson’s scheme.”
San Jose State was 3-9 and 11th in the Mountain West in 2025. Expectations are, well, not the same for the visitors on Saturday.
Never mind the oddsmakers installing the Spartans as underdogs of more than five touchdowns (38.5 points as of Tuesday). San Jose State is in a building phase and wants to establish an identity.
Much of that mission depends on Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver at quarterback. One of 33 transfers on the roster, he has two career starts and spent most of last season as the backup to Micah Alejado. He was named SJSU’s starter last week after a three-man competition with Robert McDaniel and Daniel Rolovich.
“Luke processes things really quickly. He sees the field. He’s athletic. He’s a guy that can extend drives with his legs, but he’s not just a scrambler to scramble. He can scramble and throw the football. He’s got some intangibles that we hope are going to pay dividends for us,” SJSU coach Ken Niumatalolo said.
Niumatalolo, who is currently ninth among FBS active head coaches with 119 career wins, is 2-4 against Big Ten teams in his career. Both victories came during his time as head coach at Navy.
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