CFP COMMITTEE ADDING WEIGHT TO GAMES AGAINST STRONG OPPONENTS, LIMIT REWARD FOR BEATING WEAK FOES
The College Football Playoff selection committee announced Wednesday it will place more emphasis on strength of schedule this year when determining which teams make the 12-team field.
The committee said in a statement that the schedule strength metric has been adjusted to apply greater weight to games against strong opponents. An additional metric, record strength, has been added to go beyond a team’s schedule strength to assess how a team performed against that schedule.
“This metric rewards teams defeating high-quality opponents while minimizing the penalty for losing to such a team,” the committee said. “Conversely, these changes will provide minimal reward for defeating a lower-quality opponent while imposing a greater penalty for losing to such a team.”
The adjustment to the evaluation process comes after some in the Southeastern Conference complained about last season’s inclusion of — at the time of selections — an 11-2 SMU of the Atlantic Coast Conference over a 9-3 Alabama or even a 9-3 South Carolina or 9-3 Mississippi.
SMU’s losses were to an unranked BYU and a ranked Clemson in the ACC championship game. Alabama had bad losses against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, both .500 at the time, but also had wins over a second-ranked Georgia, No. 21 Missouri and No. 14 LSU.
Prompted by concerns about how teams that don’t play in conference championship games are judged, the committee reviewed the movement of idle teams from the second-to-last ranking to final ranking. The selection committee reaffirmed that movement in the final week should be evidence-based and did not recommend creating a formal policy prohibiting such movement.
The committee also updated its policy on recusal of selection committee members.
A member will be fully recused from the evaluation of a team if he or she receives direct compensation from the school in question or has an immediate family member who is a football player, football staff member or senior administrator at the school. A fully recused member is not allowed to participate in any deliberations or vote concerning that school.
A member will be partially recused if he or she has a secondary relationship with the school in question, such as an immediate family member employed by the institution but outside of the football program or senior administration. A partially recused member may remain present and participate in discussions related to the team in question but is not allowed to participate in votes involving the team.
The selection committee will release its five weekly Top 25 rankings on Nov. 4. The final rankings and playoff field will be announced Dec. 7.
AFTER DELAYING THEIR NFL DREAMS, NO. 2 PENN STATE’S STARS ARE CHASING AN ELUSIVE NATIONAL TITLE
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. (AP) — The longer Penn State quarterback Drew Allar weighed his options, the more he thought how sweet it would be to bring a national championship to Happy Valley.
After No. 2 Penn State’s down-to-the-wire loss to Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff semifinal last season, the allure of unfinished business outweighed professional prospects for the rocket-armed senior who’ll lead one of college football’s deepest and most experienced teams.
“I know how much better I want to be as a player and leave my mark on Penn State and obviously accomplish the thing that we came close to last year but came up short in,” Allar said.
He’ll be joined by 15 returning starters who won a program-best 13 games last season. Star running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and standout defensive linemen Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant also opted to delay their NFL careers to chase the program’s first NCAA championship since 1986.
Now in his 12th season, coach James Franklin understands the expectations of a fanbase weary of playing second-fiddle to Ohio State or Michigan year after year.
“We were a few points and a few drives away from playing for the National Championship and people were pissed,” Franklin said. “That’s what you sign up for when you come to Penn State, and so those expectations are always really high.”
That’s why Franklin signed Jim Knowles away from Ohio State after the veteran defensive coordinator helped lead the Buckeyes to last season’s championship over Oregon, the team that edged Penn State in the Big Ten finale.
“When you look at all of our personnel, not just the players, but the staff and players, it’s the best combination that we’ve had in my 12 years here,” Franklin said. “The depth, the experience, the talent is impressive.”
In the trenches
The Nittany Lions are big and deep along the offensive and defensive lines.
Sixth-year center Nick Dawkins will be flanked by guards Olaivavega Ioane and Drew Shelton while Anthony Donkoh and Nolan Rucci bookend as tackles. The group combined for 60 starts, helped generate 202 rushing yards per game and mostly kept Allar upright last season.
Meanwhile, Dennis-Sutton and Durant combined for 24 of the defense’s 119 tackles for loss and 11 1/2 of its 44 sacks.
Through the air
Second-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki wants to get more receivers involved.
Penn State’s leading wideout caught just 46 passes a year ago while star tight end Tyler Warren accounted for 106 catches. With Warren playing on Sundays now, Kotelnicki is looking for transfers Kyron Hudson (USC), Devonte Ross (Troy) and Trebor Peña (Syracuse) to help veteran Liam Clifford on the outside.
Ross caught 129 balls for 1,618 yards and 14 touchdowns in three years for the Trojans. Peña had 84 of his 109 career catches for the Orange last fall and led the team with nine touchdowns.
“It’s going to be really important coming out of the first three games that we feel like we really know what we have with those three guys and how we can use them,” Franklin said.
Linebacker U
With star linebacker Abdul Carter now a New York Giant, all eyes will be on junior Tony Rojas to lead Linebacker U’s linebacker corps early.
Knowles can’t wait to watch him, especially considering Rojas sat out spring practice after having shoulder surgery. Yes, he was banged up for most of his coming out season where he tied for the team lead with three interceptions, was fifth in total tackles and added a sack.
“Very impressed,” Knowles said. “He seems to have developed physically in the offseason. He’s picked things up quickly which is tough to do when you don’t get the reps on field.”
The schedule
The Nittany Lions have home games against Nevada (Aug. 30), Florida International (Sept. 6) and Villanova (Sept. 13) to start. They’re idle before hosting Oregon on Sept. 27 in a rematch of last season’s Big Ten championship game. Northwestern (Oct. 11), Indiana (Nov. 8) and Nebraska (Nov. 22) all visit Beaver Stadium while trips to UCLA (Oct. 4), Iowa (Oct. 18), Ohio State (Nov. 1), Michigan State (Nov. 15) and Rutgers (Nov. 29) await.
BUCKEYES SEEK TO MAKE THEIR OWN LEGACY IN 2025 INSTEAD OF BEING DEFENDING CHAMPS
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio State coach Ryan Day has tried to make one thing clear: This season’s team is the 2025 Buckeyes, not the defending national champions.
“The team we have currently wants to leave their own legacy. They’ve made that clear,” Day said. “We’ve said before that we’re not defending national champions because we’re not defending anything. They can’t take the trophy away, but we’re looking to add to it and winning a championship with this team.”
The third-ranked Buckeyes go into their Aug. 30 titanic matchup against No. 1 Texas a much different squad than the one that beat Notre Dame to win the program’s eighth national championship. They had 14 players selected in the NFL draft in April, tied for the most in program history and one off the all-time mark held by Georgia in 2023.
Ohio State also lost both coordinators. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly went to the Las Vegas Raiders and Jim Knowles became the highest-paid defensive coordinator in college football with his move to No. 2 Penn State.
The Buckeyes’ cupboard though is far from empty. Sophomore Jeremiah Smith established himself as one of the top wide receivers in college football last year and safety Caleb Downs is projected as a top five pick in next year’s draft.
Sayin takes over at QB
Sophomore Julian Sayin will be responsible getting the ball to Smith and the rest of the Buckeyes’ skill players. Day said Sayin has been very accurate passing as well as being quick in his decision making.
Lincoln Kienholz will back up Sayin, but Day said he expects the junior to get playing time throughout the season.
Day would like to continue to develop quarterbacks throughout all four years, but he has realized the game has changed.
“In a perfect world, we would love to recruit high school players, develop them in the program for a few years and then watch them grow and build. But there’s no time. I mean, you got to win now,” Day said. “The best players play and that’s the way we look at it. But as you know, we want to make sure we want to have the best players in the country, developing them and retaining them, because that’s how you keep a culture in place.”
Smith will continue to generate plenty of attention after having 76 receptions for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. That should give more opportunities for junior Carnell Tate, who had 52 catches last year. Purdue transfer Max Klare should also factor into the passing attack as a good underneath option.
Lining them up
Defensive line coach Larry Johnson has had the most daunting task of the preseason with the departure of all four starters, who were drafted in the first five rounds.
The defensive line has plenty of bodies, including defensive end Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and defensive tackle Kayden McDonald. Johnson’s biggest concern has been finding a group that can play cohesively.
Defensive end Eddrick Houston has been dealing with a leg injury, but could be ready against Texas.
“We’re not worrying about how many reps they haven’t had, how many games they haven’t played. The whole idea is to get them ready to play one game and hope we can carry from there,” Johnson said.
Believe it or not …
Ohio State has a national championship and two trips to the College Football Playoff since 2021, but it hasn’t won a Big Ten title the past four seasons. The last time the Buckeyes went that long without a conference championship was the six years from 1987 through 1992.
The schedule
After the opener against Texas, the most-anticipated games will be Nov. 1 against No. 2 Penn State and Nov. 29 at 14th-ranked Michigan. Also not to be overlooked is an Oct. 11 trip to No. 12 Illinois. The Buckeyes open Big Ten play on Sept. 27 at Washington.
TOP 10 BIG TEN FOOTBALL GAMES TO WATCH IN 2025
From Week 1 blockbusters to rivalry weekend showdowns, this year’s Big Ten football schedule delivers must-watch games that will shape the College Football Playoff. Here are the 10 must-see matchups we have on our calendars.
Week 1: Texas vs. Ohio State
Saturday, August 30th at 12 p.m. ET on FOX
2024 records:
Texas: 13-3 overall, 7-1 SEC
Ohio State: 14-2 overall, 7-2 Big Ten
The season kicks off with a rematch of the 2024 College Football Playoff Semifinal in Columbus. Ohio State’s 28-14 victory last season was highlighted by quarterback Will Howard’s nearly perfect 24-for-26, 289-yard performance and Jack Sawyer’s game-sealing 83-yard fumble recovery touchdown. Full recap here.
This marks just the fifth meeting between these programs, with the all-time series tied 2-2. The Buckeyes haven’t hosted Texas since 2005-06, when the Longhorns escaped with a 25-22 victory.
Texas enters 2025 with the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class, while Ohio State sits at No. 5 (via ESPN). The Longhorns are chasing their first national championship since 2005, but they’ll face a Buckeye defense determined to stifle new starting quarterback Arch Manning. (Yes, that Manning).
The defending CFP champions – who were the only team to have three members featured on the EA Sports College Football 26 Cover – will come out hot, hoping to start a run for the Buckeyes’ first back-to-back national titles.
All eyes on week one.
Week 2: Michigan at Oklahoma
Saturday, September 6th at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
2024 records:
Michigan: 8-5 overall, 5-4 Big Ten
Oklahoma: 6-7 overall, 2-6 SEC
It’s been nearly five decades since we saw a Wolverines-Sooners matchup. Their previous encounter came in 1976, when Oklahoma defeated Michigan 14-6 at the Orange Bowl to clinch a national title.
The Wolverines are coming off strong finishes in the last two seasons. They defeated No. 11 Alabama in the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl, the season after their 2023 College Football Playoff Championship run. Oklahoma, meanwhile, showed flashes of brilliance last season with a 24-3 victory over Alabama before falling to Navy 21-20 in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Michigan kicker Dominic Zvada, the 2024 Bakken-Andersen Big Ten Kicker of the Year, earned Walter Camp Preseason All-America first team honors and could be a difference-maker in what promises to be a close contest.
This non-conference, powerhouse matchup will have College Football Playoff implications come December. Mark your calendars.
Week 3: Wisconsin at Alabama
Saturday, September 13th at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC
2024 records:
Wisconsin: 5-7 overall, 3-6 Big Ten
Alabama: 9-4 overall, 5-3 SEC
The Badgers head to Tuscaloosa for the first time in program history, seeking revenge after Alabama’s 42-10 victory in Madison last season. These programs have only met three times in nearly 100 years, with the Crimson Tide holding a 2-1 advantage.
With a stacked winter transfer class (19 commitments with several top-rated prospects) and a promising new hire in offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, this is a massive opportunity for Wisconsin to stake an early claim to the national stage. Alabama, the 18-time national champions, will provide the first test on a Wisconsin schedule that contains nine teams in the nation’s top 40.
This one will be a harbinger of what Badgers fans should expect for the rest of the season. Don’t miss it.
Week 5: Oregon at Penn State
Saturday, September 27th at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
2024 records:
Oregon: 13-1 overall, 9-0 Big Ten
Penn State: 13-3 overall, 8-1 Big Ten
Arguably the most anticipated rematch of the 2025 Big Ten season, Penn State and Oregon face off for the first time since the 2024 Discover Big Ten Football Championship Game.
Last year’s title match was an offensive masterpiece, recording the highest-scoring first half in the game’s history. Behind Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel’s four touchdown passes, Oregon outslugged Penn State, 45-37, to take home the trophy in its inaugural season. The Nittany Lions kept pace until Nikko Reed’s late interception sealed the victory for the Ducks. Full recap here.
Oregon set a new program record with 10 NFL Draft selections in 2025, including Gabriel. The Ducks enter this season with running back Makhi Hughes and defensive back Dillon Thieneman both earning Walter Camp Preseason All-America second team recognition.
Penn State, who Sports Illustrated predicted to be the best team in 2025, returns with vengeance on their minds… particularly quarterback Drew Allar and running back Nicholas Singleton, who were both stellar in last year’s championship game.
Safe to say the White Out at Beaver Stadium (and the fans watching from home) will be loud for this one.
Week 7: Michigan at USC
Saturday, October 11th (time and network TBA)
2024 records:
Michigan: 8-5 overall, 5-4 Big Ten
USC: 7-6 overall, 4-5 Big Ten
In a classic matchup (which has primarily been played at the Rose Bowl), the Wolverines travel west to face USC. The Trojans lead the all-time series 6-5, but Michigan won most recently with a thrilling 27-24 comeback victory in 2024…
The Wolverines trailed by four points with four minutes remaining before mounting a spectacular 10-play, 89-yard touchdown drive. Kalel Mullings’ 63-yard rush highlighted the decisive drive, capped by a gutsy, fourth-down touchdown run. Game story here.
With both teams boasting top-15 recruiting classes this season (via ESPN), this should be a start-to-finish thriller between two programs with championship aspirations.
Week 8: USC at Notre Dame
Saturday, October 18th at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
2024 records:
USC: 7-6 overall, 4-5 Big Ten
Notre Dame: 14-2 overall
The Trojans and Fighting Irish square off for the 95th time in 99 years this October. Notre Dame holds the momentum after winning six of the last seven meetings. The Trojans last defeated the Irish in 2022, when Heisman Trophy winner and NFL quarterback Caleb Williams threw for 232 yards along with four total touchdowns. Recap here.
Behind Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year Award winner Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame had a magical 2024 season. The Irish defeated seven top-25 teams and made a run to the national championship game, where they fell to Ohio State.
But with a top-15 recruiting class, USC is positioned for a strong 2025 campaign. Quarterback Jayden Maiava enters his first full season with head coach Lincoln Riley, and their improved chemistry could be the key to taking down the Irish.
Week 9: Michigan at Michigan State
Saturday, October 25th (time and network TBA)
2024 records:
Michigan: 8-5 overall, 5-4 Big Ten
Michigan State: 5-7 overall, 3-6 Big Ten
A top-20 college football rivalry (according to The New York Times) takes center stage when these in-state foes meet for the 118th time.
Michigan holds a 74-38-5 advantage in the all-time series and has won the last three meetings. The Wolverines’ roster is also stronger than it was last season. The QB duo of Bryce Underwood and Mikey Keene, alongside promising transfer receivers Anthony Simpson and Donaven McCulley, could make for a fun season in Ann Arbor.
But, Michigan State has come out on top in five of the last eight games in East Lansing. The Spartans hold 11 victories over top-seven ranked Michigan teams, including their miraculous 2015 win. (We’ll never forget the last-second, fumble touchdown return that helped Michigan State secure a Big Ten title and playoff berth).
This is one of those rivalries where anything can happen. And we’ll all be watching what 2025 has in store for the Great Lakes State.
Week 10: Penn State at Ohio State
Saturday, November 1st (time and network TBA)
2024 records:
Penn State: 13-3 overall, 8-1 Big Ten
Ohio State: 14-2 overall, 7-2 Big Ten
This border-state rivalry has been dramatic since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993. In just 32 meetings, they have faced off as top-10 opponents 12 times and as ranked teams 25 times.
Last season, No. 4 Ohio State stunned No. 3 Penn State in front of 111,030 roaring fans at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions jumped out to a quick 10-0 lead, but Ohio State scored 17 unanswered points en route to a 20-13 win.
Penn State hoped to have another shot at the Buckeyes in the College Football Playoff Championship, but the Nittany Lions fell to Notre Dame in a heartbreaker in the semifinal.
History favors the defending national champions, who hold a 24-8 all-time advantage and have won eight straight meetings. However, two of those wins came by just one point, and most came down to the fourth quarter.
Penn State is hungry coming into 2025. And if the Nittany Lions have one regular season game circled on their calendar… It’s this one.
Week 13: Illinois at Wisconsin
Saturday, November 22nd (time and network TBA)
2024 records:
Illinois: 10-3 overall, 6-3 Big Ten
Wisconsin: 5-7 overall, 3-6 Big Ten
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema faces his former team, returning to Camp Randall Stadium with hopes of breaking his 1-1 record against the Badgers.
In 2022 – Bielema’s first time in Madison as an opposing coach – Illinois defeated Wisconsin, 34-10. His mindset now remains the same: “What’s behind us is behind us. What’s in front of us is what matters.”
Wisconsin fans remember Bielema’s impressive tenure, including his historic 12-win rookie season, three straight Big Ten titles (2010–2012), and six consecutive bowl appearances. Now leading Illinois, he’s gaining recognition, including a spot on the Dodd Trophy Preseason watch list.
While Wisconsin leads the all-time series 45-39, recent games have been intense. During Illinois’ 2023 homecoming, Wisconsin rallied from a 21-7 deficit to win 25-21 in the fourth quarter.
With both teams eyeing bowl appearances and the emotion behind Bielema’s return, this matchup is crucial and makes for must-watch football.
Week 13: USC at Oregon
Saturday, November 22nd (time and network TBA)
2024 records:
USC: 7-6 overall, 4-5 Big Ten
Oregon: 13-1 overall, 9-0 Big Ten
USC heads to Eugene with a 39-23 all-time advantage over the Ducks. However, Oregon has had the upper hand lately, winning the last three meetings and five of the past six. The Ducks haven’t lost to USC at home since 2011, a streak they’re determined to keep alive.
The teams’ 2023 meeting was an instant classic. Oregon committed 13 penalties, and USC scored the final 13 points of the game. But Heisman finalist Bo Nix threw for 412 yards and four touchdowns for Oregon. Tez Johnson, the future Big Ten Championship Most Outstanding Player, scored two touchdowns, and the Ducks won 36-27. Full story here.
Oregon enters as the defending Big Ten champions, but in 2024, USC was a few plays away from an outstanding season. Five of the Trojans’ six losses were by seven points or less, with three decided by three points or fewer. The 2025 scales could easily tip in their favor.
Keep an eye out for this late-season, West Coast matchup – it could have CFP and Big Ten title implications.
The Ultimate Finale: Rivalry Weekend
Forget the conference standings and playoff implications. The bragging rights, trophy presentations, and emotions behind these games are what college football is all about. The Big Ten rivalry games kick off during the final weekend of the regular season:
Friday, November 28th
Iowa at Nebraska – The Heroes Trophy (12:00 p.m. ET on CBS)
Indiana at Purdue – The Old Oaken Bucket (7:30 p.m. ET on NBC)
Saturday, November 29th
Northwestern at Illinois – The Land of Lincoln
Ohio State at Michigan – “The Game” (rated college football’s most iconic rivalry by The New York Times)
Oregon at Washington – The Cascade Clash
UCLA at USC – The Victory Bell
Wisconsin at Minnesota – Paul Bunyan’s Axe
ACC PRIMER: CAN MIAMI — OR GEORGIA TECH — CATCH CLEMSON?
It wasn’t that long ago that the Atlantic Coast Conference was winning national titles at as high a rate as any conference.
Between 2013 and 2018, the ACC won three national championships (Florida State in 2013, Clemson in 2016 and 2018), more than any other conference over that span.
In the six years since, the ACC has won zero national titles while the Big Ten, which had won just one title between 2003 and 2022, has surged past the ACC by winning each of the last two.
However, the re-emergence of Clemson last season gives the conference its best shot in a number of years to snap that drought this fall. The Tigers’ No. 4 preseason ranking in the AP poll is the highest for an ACC team since 2022 Clemson was ranked fourth to begin the season.
“We’ve been a target around here for a long time,’ Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said during his preseason press conference. “Whether they’re talking bad about you, good about you, it doesn’t matter. Expectations are always high here, always have been, and they’re all big…
“As I always tell the guys, headlines this time of year, it’s all based on opinions and potential. The headlines that matter are the ones that are written on performance. Those are the ones that ultimately matter in the end.”
The Tigers, who won their seventh ACC championship in the last nine years in 2024, were picked by media voters to win the ACC once again in 2025, receiving 167 of the 183 first-place votes.
Here’s our projection for how the ACC standings will shake out this fall:
Clemson (12-1 projected record)
2024 record: 10-4
Last conference title: 2024
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Aug. 30, vs. No. 9 LSU
Why they will win the ACC: Veteran quarterback Cade Klubnik (6,483 passing yards, 55 passing TDs over the last two seasons) is back and enters 2025 as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner. He’s flanked by a defensive line which has a strong case for being the best in the nation this season, returning Peter Woods and T.J. Parker while adding Purdue transfer Will Heldt.
Miami (10-3 projected record)
2024 record: 10-3
Last conference title: 2003 (Big East Conference)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 1, at No. 16 SMU
Why they will win the ACC: Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck has been getting rave reviews around the program since returning from offseason elbow surgery over the summer. He’ll be protected by what’s expected to be one of the best offensive lines in the country and surrounded by a roster assembled by head coach Mario Cristobal which has a case for being the most talented in the conference.
Georgia Tech (10-2 projected record)
2024 record: 7-6
Last conference title: 2009
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Sept. 13, vs. No. 4 Clemson
Why they will win the ACC: Brent Key has had quite a bit of success as head coach at his alma mater, quickly turning things around into back-to-back overachieving seasons to begin his tenure. QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes, who combined for over 1,500 rushing yards and 20 rushing TDs in 2024, will anchor what should again be a high-powered offense.
Louisville (10-2 projected record)
2024 record: 9-4
Last conference title: 2012 (BIg East Conference)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Oct. 17, at No. 10 Miami
Why they will win the ACC: Head coach Jeff Brohm has proven to be something of a QB whisperer, and he’s got another promising starter this season in USC transfer Miller Moss. Pair him with RB Isaac Brown (1,173 yards, 11 TDs as a freshman in 2024) and an experienced receiver room and the Cards should have another potent offense on their hands.
SMU (9-3 projected record)
2024 record: 11-3
Last conference title: 2023 (American Conference)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 4, at No. 4 Clemson
Why they will win the ACC: Rhett Lashlee has made SMU a pinnacle of consistency early in his tenure, leading the Mustangs to consecutive 11-win seasons for the first time in program history in 2023-24 after they had just one 10-win season over the prior 37 seasons.
Florida State (8-4 projected record)
2024 record: 2-10
Last conference title: 2023
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Aug. 30, vs. No. 8 Alabama
Why they will win the ACC: It’s hard to see FSU jumping up from its 2024 disaster all the way to ACC champions this season. However, the combination of new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s track record with mobile QBs and FSU starter Tommy Castellanos’ remarkable athleticism could be the spark that was badly missing for the Seminoles last season..
North Carolina (9-3 projected record)
2024 record: 6-7
Last conference title: 1980
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Oct. 4, vs. No. 4 Clemson
Why they will win the ACC: While new UNC head coach Bill Belichick has never coached in college, he’s got a strong case for best NFL head coach of all time with six Super Bowl victories. Additionally, the Tar Heels have what appears to be an easier ACC slate, facing just one of the top seven teams in our projected ACC standings.
Duke (6-6 projected record)
2024 record: 9-4
Last conference title: 1989
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 22, at North Carolina
Why they will win the ACC: Manny Diaz did a great job in Year 1 carrying over the program momentum he inherited from former head coach Mike Elko. This offseason, he brought in Tulane QB transfer Darian Mensah (2,723 yards, 22 TD passes to six interceptions as a true freshman), who is being paid a reported $8 million over the next two seasons.
Syracuse (6-6 projected record)
2024 record: 10-3
Last conference title: 2012 (Big East)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 22, at No. 6 Notre Dame
Why they will win the ACC: The Orange made a remarkable Year 1 improvement under new head coach Fran Brown, improving by four wins for just the program’s third 10-win season this century. Brown, previously an assistant at Georgia, has been acquiring talent far above Syracuse’s normal level considering its geographical disadvantages.
Virginia Tech (6-6 projected record)
2024 record: 6-7
Last conference title: 2010
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 22, vs. No. 10 Miami
Why they will win the ACC: When healthy, QB Kyron Drones is a dynamic playmaker capable of raising a team’s level. It sounds like he’s recovered well from an injury-prone 2024 and could help head coach Brent Pry break through the plateau he appears to have hit entering his fourth season atop the program.
Pitt (6-6 projected record)
2024 record: 7-6
Last conference title: 2021
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Sept. 13, at West Virginia
Why they will win the ACC: Second-year offensive coordinator/playcaller Kade Bell immediately transformed the Panthers’ offense in 2024. That should only continue to grow with Eli Holstein back as the starting QB. Plus Pitt’s defense, especially the front seven, should be very solid, as it normally is under head coach Pat Narduzzi.
Virginia (6-6 projected record)
2024 record: 5-7
Last conference title: 1995
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Sept. 26, vs. Florida State
Why they will win the ACC: While contending in the ACC would be great, even making a bowl game for the first time since 2019 would be a success in Tony Elliott’s fourth season leading the Cavaliers. With North Texas transfer Chandler Morris (3,774 passing yards, 31 TDs in 2024) in the fold, they now have the stability at QB to potentially get there.
NC State (5-7 projected record)
2024 record: 6-7
Last conference title: 1979
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Sept. 20, at Duke
Why they will win the ACC: With new coordinators on both sides of the ball, the 2025 NC State team could look quite a bit different. But the stabilizing force is head coach Dave Doeren, who has led the Wolfpack to nine bowl games in his 12 seasons. Sophomore QB CJ Bailey should be improved after he was thrown into the deep end last season as a freshman, and he has preseason All-ACC tight end Justin Joly as a reliable target.
Boston College (4-8 projected record)
2024 record: 7-6
Last conference title: 2004 (Big East)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Oct. 4, at Pitt
Why they will win the ACC: BC has quite a bit of important turnover to deal with entering Bill O’Brien’s second season. All-American defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku and three starting offensive linemen are off to the NFL. It’ll be up to Alabama QB transfer Dylan Lonergan and some solid returning skill-position talent around him to keep things rolling in 2025.
California (3-9 projected record)
2024 record: 6-7
Last conference title: 2006 (Pac-12 Conference)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Nov. 22, at Stanford
Why they will win the ACC: Cal was hit harder than any other ACC team in terms of transfer departures. QB Fernando Mendoza is now at Indiana, star RB Jaydn Ott is now at Oklahoma, and the top 10 players in rushing yards from the 2024 team are all gone. Freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele beat out Ohio State transfer Devin Brown for the starting job. Could the four-star prospect be talented enough to prevent a drop-off in Year 2 in the ACC?
Wake Forest (3-9 projected record)
2024 record: 4-8
Last conference title: 2006
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Sept. 11, vs. NC State
Why they will win the ACC: It’s hard to see Wake Forest (4-8 each of the last two seasons) being competitive in Jake Dickert’s first season leading the program after he left Washington State to replace Dave Clawson, who resigned. But in convincing Demond Claiborne (1,049 yards, 11 touchdowns in 2024) to return, the Demon Deacons have a flashy running back who could help them steal a few wins this season.
Stanford (2-10 projected record)
2024 record: 3-9
Last conference title: 2015 (Pac-12)
Circle this game on the 2025 schedule: Sept. 13, vs. Boston College
Why they will win the ACC: Stanford is more likely to be battling to avoid finishing last in the ACC than to come close to competing this season. The Cardinal had a tougher ACC adjustment last season than fellow Pac-12 convert Cal, and then fired head coach Troy Taylor in March after a harassment/bullying investigation. Frank Reich will take the helm as interim head coach for 2025, but he’s made it clear he doesn’t want the job long-term. This season is about surviving before building for the future under GM Andrew Luck.
