Miami plays Indiana in the College Football Playoff championship game on Monday night, with BetMGM Sportsbook listing Indiana as an 8.5-point favorite as the weekend arrived.
Will it be a blowout?
The top-seeded Hoosiers (15-0) have beaten Alabama (38-3) and Oregon (56-22) in the CFP as they pursue the program’s first championship. That’s a winning margin of 34.5 points.
The 10th-seeded Hurricanes (13-2) have beaten Texas A&M (10-3), Ohio State (24-14) and Mississippi (31-27) on their way to the title game, where they will play for their sixth national championship since the poll era began in 1936. That’s a winning margin of 7 points, but the point is that the ‘Canes are used to tighter games of late and maybe that will serve them well.
How Miami can win
Carson Beck must keep doing what he is doing. His passing numbers the last three games don’t jump off the page, but he is 18 of 26 on third downs with 15 conversions, according to Sportradar, and he led the late 15-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to beat Ole Miss in the semifinals.
The ‘Canes need Mark Fletcher Jr. to dent an Indiana defense that’s given up just 2.7 yards per carry in two playoff games and has allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing in 13 of 15 games. Fletcher has been at his best lately, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and averaging better than 130 yards per game in the CFP.
Miami can’t win without getting pressure on Fernando Mendoza. The ‘Canes lead the nation in sacks, and they recorded a combined 12 against Texas A&M and Ohio State before getting to Trinidad Chambliss just once in the semifinal. Mendoza can extend plays, but he’s not the scrambler Chambliss is.
The ‘Canes also have to play a clean game. They committed 10 penalties against Ole Miss, including three false starts, a roughing the passer, targeting, personal foul and pass interference.
How Indiana can win
It starts with Mendoza, naturally. The Heisman Trophy winner threw eight touchdown passes and no interceptions against Alabama and Oregon, but now he faces the nation’s most ferocious pass rush. His sack rate of 6% is on par with the Bowl Subdivision average, but in some games he has had a tendency to take them in bunches. This can’t be one of those games.
Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black are a terrific 1-2 punch at running back and can take some of the heat off Mendoza if there’s room to roam. Top receivers Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Sarratt and Charlie Becker will go against a Miami secondary that will be short-handed for the first half because of Xavier Lucas’s targeting ejection against Ole Miss.
The defense must keep Fletcher under control, get creative with blitzes against one of the nation’s best offensive lines and make sure to contain flashy freshman Malachi Toney when he gets the ball in the open field.
The pick
Both teams are riding storybook runs. Indiana was still the officially the worst team in Bowl Subdivision history in terms of overall losses just a couple of months ago. Miami, the brash bully fallen on lean times, can return to the top in its home stadium.
This story has a crimson-and-cream ending: INDIANA wins, 31-21.
AP predictions scorecard
CFP semifinals — Straight-up — 1-1; Against spread — 1-1.
Season: Straight-up — 196-65 (75.1%); Against spread — 126-134-1 (48.3%).
NO. 1 INDIANA LOOKING FOR A STORYBOOK ENDING TO COMPLETE THIS REAL-LIFE HOLLYWOOD SCRIPT AT MIAMI
Long before Angelo Pizzo penned the scripts for two of America’s most iconic sports movies, he and his father would make the one-block walk from their home to Indiana’s football stadium.
The strolls home usually seemed to take a bit longer because even then, in 1955, losses were the norm. Eventually, the man who introduced the world to such motivational flicks as “Hoosiers” and “Rudy” accepted the reality Indiana’s program may be permanently stuck in mediocrity — or worse.
Pizzo found himself in good company in these parts.
Seventy-one years later, he — like so many other long-suffering Indiana fans — has a new perspective. Suddenly, the Bloomington native is bursting with excitement, enthusiasm, even a sense of disbelief as the Hoosiers have gone 26-2 over the past two seasons and he’s now heading to Miami to watch his beloved alma mater try to pull off a “Hoosiers”-like ending by beating the 10th-ranked Hurricanes on their home field for the program’s first national championship.
“One of my first memories, talk about being in my DNA, was we always lost,” Pizzo told The Associated Press this week. “That’s kind of like, except for a couple blips along the way — certainly the (1968) Rose Bowl team, I was in school there and the boys Jade Butcher, John Isenbarger, Harry Gonso were all good friends of mine — so that was a great adventure. I thought we’d turned the corner and then it went back down. It returned to what was normal and we went back to losing.”
Storybook turnaround
Curt Cignetti promised to change Indiana’s image from the moment he took the job five days after the end of the 2023 season. The no-nonsense 62-year-old coach neither minced words nor wasted them when asked at his first news conference why people should believe he’d end all this losing.
“I win. Google me,” he famously boasted that day.
It was a brash, bold statement from someone tasked with fixing a program that hadn’t won a bowl game since 1991, an outright conference title since 1945 and carried the banner of losingest major college team in the country.
Rather than tamp down the expectations, though, Cignetti doubled down at a basketball game.
“Purdue sucks, but so does Ohio State and Michigan,” Cignetti said to roaring cheers.
Pizzo and other fans were understandably skeptical.
For decades, they’d seen hopeful coaches come promising big turnarounds only to depart when they failed to achieve such lofty goals in front of half-filled stadiums.
How bad was it?
When coach John Pont had the Hoosiers fighting for Big Ten crowns in the 1960s, fans enjoyed chanting “Punt, John, Punt.” In 1976, then-coach Lee Corso called timeout in the second quarter to snap a photo of the scoreboard with Indiana leading Ohio State 7-6. They lost 47-7.
In the 1990s and 2000s, some tailgaters never made it inside the stadium, which prompted coaches to rally students to show up. And twice, Indiana took aerial photographs of sellout crowds clad in red — when the Buckeyes came to town.
On the field, it was equally abysmal.
In addition to the 713 all-time losses Cignetti inherited, the Hoosiers also had lost five of its previous six against dreaded rival Purdue and was 9-18 since 1997 against the Boilermakers. Plus, they had only one win over the Wolverines since 1988 and none over the Buckeyes since 1989 — the longest active skid against one team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Athletic director Scott Dolson had a different vision for the program, one Cignetti shared.
“I remember even during our first conversation, I said to him, ‘Curt, do you really believe you can win here?’” Dolson told the AP. “He just said, ‘Scott, if I have average resources, I’m 100% sure I will win here. There’s no question about it.’”
Investing in success
Perhaps the greatest impediment to success was the perception Indiana wasn’t fully invested in football. Salaries for head coaches consistently lagged near the bottom of the Big Ten and each new coach seemed to be fighting to get their assistants paid, too.
The change began when former athletic director Fred Glass started upgrading facilities. But when NIL money and the transfer portal changed the college football world, Indiana didn’t adapt quickly and the delay led, in part, to the firing of coach Tom Allen in 2023.
According to the Knight-Newhouse database, Indiana’s football budget has increased from $24 million in 2021 to more than $61 million last year.
Allen, who grew up in Indiana and whose father was a longtime high school coach in the state, landed at Penn State as defensive coordinator in 2024 and then took the same job at Clemson last season. Today, he’s impressed with the results — and the commitments.
“Just really, really happy for those guys and just really, really happy they’ve chosen to invest in football,” Allen said in December. “That’s something they know they needed to do. They had not done that in the past to the level necessary, and it’s been awesome to see them recognize that and invest and be able to be rewarded for that.”
Honestly, though, Indiana didn’t have a choice.
Schools need football revenue to make athletic departments function. So empty seats, even at a basketball, can be costly.
But winning has helped Indiana strike gold.
School attendance and admission applications are both up. So are donations, which includes a significant contribution from billionaire Mark Cuban, an alum. In addition to shedding the label of America’s losingest team in November, it also surpassed Penn State in October for the nation’s largest living alumni base. And over the past two seasons, Memorial Stadium has drawn eight of the largest 10 crowds in school history.
So Dolson isn’t about to let Cignetti — or his key staff members — get away if he can help it.
Cignetti has earned contract extensions each of the past two seasons, pushing his average annual salary to $11.6 million, No. 3 in the nation. Bryant Haines and Mike Shanahan also have received contract extensions pushing their salaries to upwards of $3 million per year.
Indiana fans will tell you they’re worth every penny. Yet Dolson believes it’s not just about cash.
“He didn’t come in with demands, like saying ‘Hey, I’d only come here if I get this, that and the other.’ We laid out, ‘This is what our commitments are, this is what our plan is,’” Dolson said of Cignetti. “One of the misnomers out there is that it’s not just a spending contest. It’s more of having a comprehensive strategic plan for football and that’s what we really put together.”
Cignature style
Sure, Cignetti came to Indiana with a resume and a track record. He also brought most of his previous coaches and about two dozen James Madison players, too.
Why? They believed in the man and his principles.
“Coach Cig just does such a great job of bringing out the best in his players, and obviously his coaches as well,” said All-American linebacker Aiden Fisher, one of the followers from JMU. “But there’s something about coach Cig that just makes you want to play your heart out for him and he does a great job getting the best out of everybody.”
It explains how he’s taken self-proclaimed “misfit” recruits on the wildest journey of their lives.
Cignetti seemed to be built for this job.
He grew up learning the craft from his father, Frank Sr., a Hall of Fame coach at the Division II level. He spent more than two decades evaluating and developing players before he joined Nick Saban’s staff at Alabama in 2007, where he served as the recruiting coordinator for Saban’s first title team.
Somewhere along the way, though, Cignetti developed his own style — the short, punchy phrases, the quick quips and the unchanging facial expression that have created their own internet memes.
But Dolson was interested in Cignetti for other reasons.
He liked the notion of who Cignetti could bring with him and Dolson detected some similarities between Cignetti and another title-winning coach at Indiana, the late Bob Knight.
“Certainly, different personalities, but similarities in terms of their commitment to their blueprint, their plan, the focus on details and just the mental approach to competitive success,” Dolson said. “I feel like there’s an elite approach to that. I definitely see the way coach Cig runs things, the way he coaches, there are a lot of similarities.”
Movie time
Pizzo’s phone started ringing repeatedly almost from the moment Cignetti responded to a post-Rose Bowl game question about Indiana’s remarkable ascension.
“It would make a hell of a movie,” he cracked.
Perhaps no filmmaker understands the Cinderella story better than Pizzo, who introduced the world to his home state’s 1954 Milan Miracle team and captivated the nation by turning a previously little-known walk-on at Notre Dame into a recognizable star.
But Pizzo has no plans to make “Hoosiers 2.” He thinks the story of Indiana’s two-year football run needs to marinate for a decade or two, like his other two box office hits.
Besides, Pizzo has turned into a full-throttle believer, even suggesting the final chapter of this incredible run may not come Monday night.
“Last season was the season of a lifetime, to get into the College Football Playoff. But I thought we had hit our ceiling because we were going up against teams like Ohio State and Notre Dame that had more four- and five-star talent and NFL players than we did,” he said. “I’m not going to even think about Miami. I think we should win, but again, you know, it’s just too good to be true.”
Yes, the Hoosiers have exorcised their demons.
They’ve won two straight against the Boilermakers. They’ve beaten Michigan and Ohio State. They’ve won the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl. They have a Heisman Trophy winner, quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
Now they’re one win away from a title nobody saw coming, except perhaps Dolson and Cignetti.
“Everything he said in his interview, everything he articulated in his blueprint is the same as you see today,” Dolson said. “In fact, everything he said during the interview has come true.”
INDIANA LANDS STAR-STUDDED GROUP FROM TRANSFER PORTAL WHILE PREPARING FOR NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Indiana and Mississippi had rather busy schedules the last couple of weeks as they competed in the College Football Playoff while the transfer portal window was open.
But it apparently didn’t bother their 2026 roster construction efforts too much.
As the program gets ready to face Miami in the national championship game, Indiana has put together arguably the nation’s best collection of transfers for its 2026 roster. Ole Miss’ transfer class isn’t that far behind heading into Friday’s closing of the portal window.
Texas Tech and Texas A&M also put together impressive transfer classes, though their playoff runs ended before the portal window opened.
A look at the AP’s top 10 transfer classes in order:
Indiana
Josh Hoover, who threw for 71 touchdowns and more than 9,600 yards at TCU from 2022-25, is the heir apparent to Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. He will pass to Nick Marsh (59 catches, 662 yards, 6 TDs at Michigan State last season) and Shazz Preston (43-723-4 at Tulane). Turbo Richard rushed for 749 yards and nine touchdowns at Boston College. Indiana also added offensive lineman Joe Brunner (formerly at Wisconsin) and defensive linemen Tobi Osunsanmi (Kansas State), Chiddi Obiazor (Kansas State) and Josh Burnham (Notre Dame). Preston Zachman (Wisconsin) and A.J. Harris (Penn State) boost the secondary.
Texas
Arch Manning has a prime new target now that Texas has added Cam Coleman, a former five-star recruit who had 1,306 yards receiving and 13 touchdowns at Auburn over the last two seasons. Raleek Brown (Arizona State) rushed for 1,141 yards and Hollywood Smothers (N.C. State) ran for 939 yards this season. Rasheem Biles produced 101 tackles — 17 for loss — at Pittsburgh this season. Smothers was a first-team pick and Biles was a second-team selection on the Associated Press all-Atlantic Coast Conference team. The Longhorns also brought in Melvin Siani, who was Wake Forest’s starting left tackle this season. The secondary adds cornerback Bo Mascoe (Rutgers), an honorable mention all-Big Ten selection from the league’s coaches and media.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech’s new quarterback is Brendan Sorsby, who threw for at least 2,800 yards each of the last two seasons at Cincinnati. Texas Tech stockpiled its defensive front seven by adding lineman Mateen Ibirogba from Wake Forest, edge rusher Adam Trick from Miami (Ohio) and linebacker Austin Romaine from Kansas State. Romaine had more than 160 tackles over the last two seasons. Trick delivered 8½ sacks and forced three fumbles this season.
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is hoping it can bounce back from a 1-11 season by bringing in plenty of guys from a North Texas team that went 12-2. More than a dozen players followed new Cowboys coach Eric Morris from North Texas. Drew Mestemaker threw for an FBS-leading 4,379 yards this season. Other arrivals from North Texas include Caleb Hawkins and Wyatt Young. Hawkins rushed for 1,434 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. Young had 70 catches for 1,264 yards and 10 scores.
Louisville
Offensive linemen Cason Henry (South Carolina), Johnnie Brown (Georgia Southern), Anwar O’Neal (Delaware) and Eryx Daugherty (Boston College) were all starters at their former schools. Edge rusher Tyler Thompson (North Carolina) had seven sacks and safety Koen Entringer (Iowa) recorded 73 tackles this season. Wide receiver Tre Richardson (Vanderbilt) and tight end Brody Foley (Tulsa) each caught seven touchdown passes. The Cardinals also added two quarterbacks in former Ohio State backup Lincoln Kienholz and West Georgia starter Davin Wydner.
Texas A&M
The Aggies rebuilt an offensive line that loses four starters by landing Tyree Adams (LSU), Trovon Baugh (South Carolina), Coen Echols (LSU) and Wilkin Formby (Alabama). All were starters at their former schools. C.J. Mims (North Carolina), Brandon Davis-Swain (Colorado) and Anto Saka (Northwestern) should help the defensive front. Isaiah Horton (Alabama) caught eight touchdown passes this season. The Aggies boosted one of their major weaknesses by adding David Olano, who went 37 of 43 on field-goal attempts at Illinois the last two seasons.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin found its new quarterback in Sun Belt offensive player of the year Colton Joseph, who threw for 2,624 yards and rushed for 1,007 at Old Dominion. Abu Sama rushed for 1,933 yards the last three seasons at Iowa State. Safety Marvin Burks Jr. (Missouri), and cornerbacks Javan Robinson (Arizona State) and Bryce West (Ohio State) should provide immediate help. Burks and Robinson both started multiple seasons at their former schools.
Ole Miss
Linebacker Keaton Thomas (Baylor) had more than 100 tackles each of the last two seasons. Thomas was a second-team AP all-Big 12 pick this season. Defensive lineman Michai Boireau (Florida) and defensive backs Joenel Aguero (Georgia), Jay Crawford (Auburn), Sharif Denson (Florida) and Edwin Joseph (Florida State) all were starters at their former schools. Darrell Gill Jr. (Syracuse) had five touchdown catches and Jonathan Maldonado (Nevada) had five sacks this season. Offensive linemen Carius Curne (LSU) and Troy Everett (Oklahoma) bring more Power Four experience. Quarterback Deuce Knight (Auburn) is unproven, but he’s a former five-star recruit.
LSU
Incoming LSU coach Lane Kiffin rebuilt the Tigers’ quarterback room by signing Sam Leavitt (Arizona State) for the present and Husan Longstreet (Southern California) for the future. Leavitt got Arizona State to a CFP berth last season. Longstreet was a five-star prospect coming out of high school. Kiffin also upgraded LSU’s passing game by bringing Winston Watkins Jr. with him from Ole Miss and signing several other wideouts, including Eugene Wilson (Florida), Jayce Brown (Kansas State), Tre Brown (Old Dominion) and Jackson Harris (Hawaii). Harris had 49 catches for 963 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. Tre Brown had 762 receiving yards and Jayce Brown had 712.
Virginia Tech/Penn State These two schools are a package deal because of their coaching connection. New Virginia Tech coach James Franklin has added about a dozen of his former Penn State players. That list includes quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, who took over for the injured Drew Allar as Penn State’s starter the second half of this season. WR Que’Sean Brown caught 10 passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns in Duke’s Sun Bowl win over Arizona State. New Penn State coach Matt Campbell brought nearly two dozen players with him from Iowa State. Rocco Becht headed to Penn State after throwing for 64 touchdowns and more than 9,200 yards for Campbell’s Iowa State teams over the last three seasons.
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